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装配式建筑工程施工进度风险的系统动力学分析
发布时间:2020-01-10

  摘    要: 近年来,装配式建筑无法取代传统建筑,其施工进度控制是影响装配式建筑普及的问题之一。为了提高施工进度控制,缩短工期,本文将通过大量文献查阅及调查,筛选出影响装配式建筑施工进度权重较大的风险因子,使用Vensim软件,绘制各个风险因子因果关系图及流量图,构建仿真模型,分析对装配式建筑施工进度影响最大因子并给出建议,为其它风险项目评价提供参考。

  关键词: 装配式建筑; 施工进度风险; 系统动力学;

  Abstract:赢发彩票代理 In recent years, prefabricated buildings cannot replace traditional buildings, and construction progress control is one of the issues affecting the popularity of prefabricated buildings. In order to improve the control of construction progress and shorten the construction period, this article will use a large amount of literature review and investigation to screen out the risk factors that have a greater weight for the construction progress of prefabricated buildings,uses Vensim software to draw a causality diagram and flow diagram of each risk factor to build a simulation model to analyze the factors that have the greatest influence on the construction progress of prefabricated buildings and give suggestions to provide references for the evaluation of other risk projects.

  Keyword: prefabricated building; construction progress risk; system dynamics;

  0、 引言

  WEILEJIAKUAIJIANZHUGONGYEHUABUFA,TONGSHIFUHEKECHIXUFAZHANZHANLVE。ZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUYIJIANSHAOWURAN、JIAKUAIGONGQI、GAODUXINXIHUADENGYOUSHISHIDEJIANZHUSHICHANGDEGEFANGCANYUZHEFENFENDUIZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUJINXINGDALIANGDEYANJIUHESHIJIAN,QUDELEJINYIBUDEFAZHAN。RANERZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUMUQIANCHUYUCHUJIJIEDUAN,ZHENGGECHANYELIANHAIBUCHENGSHU,QISHIGONGJINDUKONGZHIHUANJIEWEIJISHOUWENTIZHIYI,LILUNSHANGZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUKEYIJIZHUTISHIGONG、YUANLINLVHUASHIGONG、ZHUANGXIUYUYITI,SUODUANZHENGGEGONGCHENGGONGQI,JIANSHAOCHENGBEN。DANZAISHIJISHIGONGZHONGDUOGEGONGZHONGGUANLI、ZIZHIJISHUSHUIPINGCANCHABUQI、WAIBUSHICHANGBIANDONGDENGFENGXIANYINSUSHIQISHIGONGJINDUYUYUQIXIANGBIBIANDONGJIAODA。ERQIEZHUANGPEISHIGOUJIANYIBANZHINENGZAIBAITIANDIAOZHUANG,DAPOLECHUANTONGDE“BAITIANZHIMO、JIAJIN,WANSHANGJIAOGUI”SHIGONGMOSHI,ZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHURANGGANGONGBIANDEGENGNAN,JINDUDEKEKONGXINGJINYIBUJIANGDI[1]。YINCI,DUIZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUSHIGONGJINDUFENGXIANJINXINGPINGJIA,ZAIZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUSHIGONGJINDUKONGZHIZHONGJUYOUZHONGYAOYIYI。

  目前,国内外装配式建筑施工进度有大量的研究,对于国内学者研究来说多集中于信息化管理的应用及优化施工工艺。薛茹,王新渊,史科[2]通过BIM可视化、信息多元化、模拟化等优势,建立信息管理平台,做到信息共享及信息准确,来控制施工进度。张斌斌,程志军[3]通过实际工程案例,从多个层面分析施工进度的影响因素,提高施工效率,优化施工进度。国外学者的研究多集中于提出最优装配计划及施工方式不同组合。Rausch[4]通过改进构件接口,降低装配式构件安装错误率。Arashpour[5]通过不同的施工方法进行组合,减少施工进度风险。这些研究为装配式建筑的推广和发展发挥着重要意义。
 

装配式建筑工程施工进度风险的系统动力学分析
 

赢发彩票代理   DUIYUZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUSHIGONGJINDUFENGXIANYANJIUFANGFASHUBUSHENGSHU,XUDUOXUEZHETONGGUOMOHUCENGCIFENXIFA、ZHUANJIADAFENFA、BEIYESIDENGFANGFAYANJIUSHIGONGJINDUFENGXIAN,ZHEIXIEYANJIUFANGFAZAIFENXIFENGXIANYINZIZHONGFAHUIZHONGYAOZUOYONG,DANHAIXUYAOQITAYANJIUQUWANSHANHEJIANYAN。XITONGDONGLIXUENENGGOUQINGXIKANCHUXITONGNEIBUGEYINSUZHIJIANDEYINGUOFANKUIGUANXI,YIJICUNZAIDEFANKUIHUILU,DONGTAIFENXIYANJIUDEWENTI[6]。YINCI,BENWENTONGGUOXITONGDONGLIXUEFENXIZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUSHIGONGJINDUFENGXIAN,WEISHIJIZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUSHIGONGJINDUFENGXIANPINGJIATIGONGCANKAO。

  1、 研究方法

赢发彩票代理   ZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUSHIGONGJINDUHUANJIEJUYOUZHOUQIBIJIAOZHANG、CANYURENYUANDUO、HUANJINGDUOBIAN、ZIJINLIUDONGXINGDADENGTEDIAN。WEILESUODUANSHIGONGGONGQI,KONGZHISHIGONGJINDU,BIZHETONGGUOGUONEIWAIWENXIANCHAYUEJIXIANCHANGDIAOYANFAXIANYINGXIANGZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUSHIGONGJINDUFENGXIANYINZIZHUYAOSHEJIGOUJIANANZHUANG、ZIJIN、HUANJING、GUANLIDENGSIDAFANGMIAN。YINCI,BENWENJIANGCONGSHANGSHUSIGEFANGMIANYANSHENGCHUDUOGEXIAOZHIBIAO,FENXIZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUSHIGONGJINDUFENGXIAN。

  1.1、 构件安装风险

  ZAIZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUSHIGONGZHONG,YUZHIGOUJIANTONGGUOTADIAOJIPINJIEGOUJIANJIANGQIZUZHUANGQILAI,ZAICIGUOCHENGZHONG,XIANJIAOSUDU、ANZHUANGSUDU、SHIGONGDEWUFENGDUIJIE、ANZHUANGHEGELVDOUHUIZHIJIEYINGXIANGGOUJIANANZHUANG。ERSHIGONGWUFENGDUIJIEJILIANGLIANGXIANGHUANZHUANGGOUJIANXINXIZHUNQUEDUIZHAO、GOUJIANKUCUNJISHIBUJI、GEGEGONGXUZHIJIANTIAOTIAOYOUXU、TADIAOHEYUANGONGWANMEIDUIJIE。TONGSHIGOUJIANANZHUANGSHIJIANHEYULIUSHIJIANYINGXIANGANZHUANGSUDU。DANGYICENGGOUJIANANZHUANGWANBIHOUXUYAODUILOUBANJIFENGXIJINXINGJIAOZHU。ANZHUANGHEGELVJIFUHEANZHUANGTIAOJIANGOUJIANHEZONGGOUJIANDEBIZHI。

  1.2、 资金风险

赢发彩票代理   ZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUSHIGONGZIJINLIUDONGDA。ZHUYAOSHEJICHENGBENHEXIAOYILIANGFANGMIAN,ZAISHIGONGGUOCHENGZHONG,RUOZIJINBUDAOWEIHUICHUXIANTINGGONGZHUANGKUANG,ZHIJIEYINGXIANGSHIGONGJINDU。ERZIJINXIAOYIKEYIJIANQINGSHIGONGCHENGBENFUDAN。YINCI,BENWENSHENRUWAJUESHIGONGCHENGBENJIZIJINXIAOYIDEZUCHENGBUFEN,TONGGUOFENXICHENGBENJIXIAOYIYINGUOGUANXIFENXI,JIANJIELEJIEZIJINDUISHIGONGJINDUDEYINGXIANG。

  1.3、 环境风险

  YOUYUZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUCHUYUCHUJIJIEDUAN,FAZHANBUBUCHENGSHU,SHOUHUANJINGYINGXIANGJIAODA。DUIRENWEIYINSUERYAN,ZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUXUYAOZHENGFUZIJINFUCHIHEXINDAIJIGOUZHICHI,FOUZHEHUIYICHENGBENGUOGAOZUAIZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUDEFAZHAN,YIJIUYANYONGCHUANTONGSHIJIANZHUFANGFA。TONGSHIPUJIZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUYOUSHI,JIADAXUANCHUAN,TIGAOXIAOFEIZHEDEXINRENNENGLI。

  2、 模型建立

  XITONGDONGLIXUE(system dynamic,SD)SHIYIMENYONGLAIYANJIUXITONGFANKUIXINGWEIDEKEXUE,TONGGUOJIANGXITONGKEXUELILUNYUJISUANJIFANGZHENXIANGJIEHE,DUIGELEIDINGXINGHEDINGLIANGDEXITONGJINXINGYANJIU[7]。GUANYUBENWENSHUJU,QIGAILVSHUJUDABUFENLAIYUANYUZHUANJIADAFENFAHEWENJUANDIAOCHA,ERGUANYUGONGCHENGSHIGONGSHUJULAIYUANYUFOSHANMOUXIANGMU,JIANZHUMIANJIDADAO123627PINGFANGMI,ZICHIWUYELEIBIE,SHANGYEZHAN10500PINGFANGMI,ZHUFANGZHAN113127PINGFANGMI,YUZHILVGAODA65%YISHANG。

  2.1、 因果关系回路

赢发彩票代理   BENWENSHANGSHUDUIZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUSHIGONGJINDUYINGXIANGYINZIJINXINGSHENRUJIEPOU,GOUJIANCHUGOUJIANANZHUANGFENGXIANZIJIXITONG、ZIJINFENGXIANZIJIXITONG、HUANJINGFENGXIANZIJIXITONG、GUANLIFENGXIANZIJIXITONG,ZHAOCHUZIJIXITONGZHIJIANDEYINGUOGUANXI,SHIYONGVensimRUANJIANHUIZHICHUYINGUOGUANXIHUILUTU。QIZHONGZHUANGTAIBIANLIANGFENBIEWEIGOUJIANANZHUANGFENGXIAN、ZIJINFENGXIAN、HUANJINGFENGXIAN、GUANLIFENGXIAN,SULVBIANLIANGFENBIEWEIGOUJIANANZHUANGSHUIPINGBIANLIANG、ZIJINSHUIPINGBIANLIANG、HUANJINGSHUIPINGBIANLIANG、GUANLISHUIPINGBIANLIANG。

  ZHAOCHUGEGEZHIBIAOYINGUOGUANXI,HUICHUYINGUOGUANXITU,DEDAODUOGEFANKUIHUITU,ER“+”FUHAOWEIZHENGXIANGFANKUI,“-”FUHAOWEIFUFANKUI。YIGOUJIANANZHUANGWEILI,KEYIDEDAO5GEHUILU,FENBIEWEI:

  (1)RENYUANGONGZUOLIANG(+)→WANCHENGGONGZUOLIANG(+)→ANZHUANGSUDU(+)→GOUJIANANZHUANG(+);

  (2)GOUJIANANZHUANGFENGXIAN(+)→ANZHUANGCHENGBEN(+)→SHIGONGCHENGBEN(-)→ZIJINFENGXIAN(+)SHICHANGXUQIU(-)→WAIBUHUANJING(+)→ANQUANGUANLI(+)→GUANLIFENGXIAN(+)→SHIGONGWUFENGDUIJIE(+);

赢发彩票代理   (3)GOUJIANANZHUANGFENGXIAN(+)→RENYUANGONGZUOLIANG(+)→WANCHENGGONGZUO(+)→XIANJIAOSUDU(+);

  (4)GOUJIANANZHUANGFENGXIAN(+)→ANZHUANGCHENGBEN(+)→SHIGONGCHENGBEN(+)→ZIJINFENGXIAN(-)→SHICHANGXUQIU(-)→WAIBUHUANJING(+)→HUANJINGFENGXIAN(-)→ZUZHIGUANLI(+)→YANSHOUHEGEGOUJIAN(+)→ANZHUANGHEGELV(+);

赢发彩票代理   (5)GOUJIANANZHUANGFENGXIAN(+)→ANZHUANGCHENGBEN(+)→SHIGONGCHENGBEN(+)→ZIJINFENGXIAN(-)→SHICHANGXUQIU(-)→WAIBUHUANJING(+)→HUANJINGFENGXIAN(+)→ZUZHIGUANLI(+)→GUANLIFENGXIAN(+)→SHIGONGWUFENGDUIJIECHENGDU(+)。

  2.2、 装配式建筑施工进度流量

赢发彩票代理   DUIYUSDFANGZHENFENXI,SHOUXIANDUICANSHUJINXINGSHEZHI,DUIYINGDEINITIAL TIME=0,FINAL TIME=20,TIME STEP=4,Units forTime=week,CANZHAOYINGUOGUANXITUHUICHULIULIANGTU。BINGDUILIULIANGTUFUSHANGFANGCHENGSHI。BENWENSHIYONGTESHUHANSHUFANGCHENGSHIDESHEZHIRUXIA:

赢发彩票代理   ZHENGFUBUTIE=IF THEN ELSE(YUZHILV>0.65,JIANZHUMIANJI*100+WAIBUHUANJINGYINGXIANG*JIANZHUMIANJI,0),DANGYUZHILVDADAO65%YISHANG,GUOJIAHUIYIMEIPINGMI100YUANDEJIAGEDUIZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUJINXINGBUTIE,DANRUGUOYUZHILVDABUDAOSHANGSHUTIAOJIANZEBUTIE0YUAN。ANZHUANGSUDUSHEJISHIJIANQIWANG,HUIYUNYONGYANCHIHANSHU,ANZHUANGSUDU=DELAY1I(WANCHENGGONGZUOLIANG,GOUJIANYULIUSHIJIAN,GOUJIANANZHUANGSHIJIAN),JIGOUJIANYULIUSHIJIANWEIYANCHISHIJIAN,GOUJIANANZHUANGSHIJIANWEIZUICHUSHIJIAN,ZUIHOUDECHUDESHIMEIZHOUYANCHIDUOSHAOPINGFANGMI。MOUXIERENYUANDEGONGZUOSHIJIANYESHIBUDENGDE,ZERENYUANGONGZUOSHIJIAN=MAX(56,70)。YOUYUBENWENPINGJIASHIGONGJINDUFENGXIAN,YINCISHIGONGJINDUFENGXIAN=GOUJIANANZHUANGFENGXIAN+HUANJINGFENGXIAN+ZIJINFENGXIAN+GUANLIFENGXIAN,SHIGONGJINDUFENGXIANSHUYUSHUIZHUNBIANLIANG,SHEJICHUSHIZHI,BENWENJIANGCHUSHIZHISHEZHIWEI100。DANGSUOYOUFANGCHENGSHISHEZHIWANBIHOUDUICIMOXINGJINXINGFANGZHEN。

  2.3、 SD仿真

  KEZHISHIGONGJINDUFENGXIANCHENGBODONGQIFUZHUANGTAI,ZAIWEIKAIGONGSHI,CHUYU0FENGXIANZHUANGTAI,SUIZHESHIJIANTUIYI,FENGXIANJIJUSHANGSHENG,DADAOZUIGAODIAN,CISHIZAI,SHIGONGQUANMIANZHANKAI,DANGSHIGONGKUAIJIEJINWEISHENG,SHIGONGJINDUFENGXIANCHENGXIAJIANGQUSHIZHIDAOSHIGONGWANBI。

  SHIYONGvensimRUANJIANDIANJISim SetupDUICHANGLIANGJIGONGZUOSHIJIAN、JIANZHUMIANJI、SHIGONGGONGYISHUIPINGDENGDENGJINXINGSHUZIXIUGAI,FANGZHENXIUGAIHOUDELIULIANGTU,SHIGONGJINDUFENGXIAN,DANGHUADONGCHANGLIANGGONGZUOSHIJIANJIGONGZUOSHIJIAN、GONGZUOSUDU、YUANGONGZIZHI、SHICHANG、CHENGBEN、PEIXUNJIAOYUDENGDENG,SHIGONGJINDUFENGXIANTUYEHUISUIZHIBIANDONG。DANGHUADONGGOUJIANANZHUANGFENGXIANZIJIXITONGZHONGDECHANGLIANGSHI,SHIGONGJINDUFENGXIANGAILVDADAO0.88,FENGXIANGAOYUHUADONGQITAZIJIXITONGCHANGLIANG。YINCI,GOUJIANANZHUANGFENGXIANDUISHIGONGJINDUYINGXIANGZUIDA。

  FENBIEDIAOCHUGOUJIANANZHUANGFENGXIAN、ZIJINFENGXIAN、HUANJINGFENGXIAN、GUANLIFENGXIANTU,GUANLIFENGXIAN、HUANJINGFENGXIANCHENGZHIXIANSHANGSHENG,SHIGONGWANGONGHOUCHENGHUANMANXIAJIANGQUSHI。YISHIGONGJINDUGUANLIFENGXIANWEILI,QIGAILVCONG0KAISHI,SHEJISHIGONGGONGXUFUZADUOYANG,RENYUANRONGZA、XINXIHUNLUANSHIDEGUANLIFENGXIANZHUBUJIADA,DANGSHIGONGDADAOWEISHENG,YOUGENGDUOXINXIJINXINGZHENGLIYANSHOU,YINCI,FENGXIANHUICHENGZHIXIANHUANMANXIAJIANG。ERZIJINFENGXIANCHENGZHIXIANSHANGSHENGQUSHI,JIDANGZIJINXIAOYISHAOYUSHIGONGCHENGBEN,ZIJINFENGXIANDADAOZUIGAO,YANCHISHIGONGJINDU。GOUJIANANZHUANGFENGXIANJINSIYUZHENGTAIFENBU,CHUYUBODONGXINGTAI,YOUYUGOUJIANANZHUANGDUISHIGONGJINDUFENGXIANYINGXIANGJIAODA,YINCI,SHIGONGJINDUFENGXIANTULEISIYUGOUJIANANZHUANGFENGXIAN,TONGSHANGSHUCAOZUO,DANGHUADONGYUANGONGZIZHIHESHIGONGGONGYISHUIPING,GOUJIANANZHUANGFENGXIANBIANDONGMINGXIAN,YINCIYUANGONGZIZHIHEGONGZUOSUDUDUISHIGONGJINDUJIANJIEYINGXIANGJIAODA。

  3、 结论

赢发彩票代理   ZONGSHANGSUOSHU,JIUYANJIUFANGFAERYAN,BENWENXUANYONGXITONGDONGLIXUEPINGJIAZHUANGPEISHISHIGONGJINDUFENGXIAN,DONGTAIFANGZHEN,ZAICIZHENGSHIXITONGDONGLIXUEKEYIDIAOZHENGRENHEBIANLIANGPINGJIAXIANGMUFENGXIAN,WEIQITAFENGXIANPINGJIAXIANGMUTIGONGFANGFACANKAO。JIUZHUANGPEISHIJIANZHUSHIGONGJINDUFENGXIANPINGJIAERYAN,YOUFANGZHENJIEGUOKEZHIGOUJIANANZHUANGFENGXIAN、ZIJINFENGXIAN、HUANJINGFENGXIAN、GUANLIFENGXIANDENGYINGXIANGYINZISHIXIANGHULIANXI,XIANGHUYINGXIANG,RENYICHANGLIANGDEBIANHUADOUHUISHIQITAYINGXIANGYINZIFASHENGBIANHUA,YUQITAFENGXIANXIANGMUPINGJIAXIANGBI,QIYOUSHIZAIYUDONGTAIXING。DANQUEDIANYEHENMINGXIAN,BENWENBUQUEDINGXINGYINZIJINXIANYUCICIFENGXIANXIANGMUPINGJIA,ERQIEYOUXUANLEYINZIDEYINGXIANGQUANZHONGBIJIAODADE,TAOTAIYINGXIANGYINZIXIAODEBUQUEDINGXINGYINZI。YINCI,RUHEJIANGYINGXIANGYINZIKAOLVGENGQUANMIANSHIRIHOUYANJIUDEZHONGYAOZOUXIANG。

  参考文献

  [1] 刘晨晨.工程总承包方视角下装配式建筑施工进度风险管理研究[D].北京:中国矿业大学,2019.
  [2] 薛茹,王新渊,史科.基于建筑信息建模技术的装配式建筑施工问题及对策分析[J].工业建筑,2018,48(11):207-210.
  [3] 张斌斌,程志军.装配式混凝土建筑施工进度影响因素分析[J].混凝土与水泥制品,2018(8):78-80.

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